Kadima countdown
4 09 2008The Kadima primary is fast approaching. It is beginning to feel relatively certain that Livni is going to beat out Shaul Mofaz for the leadership. The question will then remain as to whether or not an alternate government can be formed. If a coalition cannot be formed then Olmert will remain as the Prime Minister for another 6 months until new general elections are held. Obviously, no one wants that to happen except for Bibi –because of course he is hoping for a general election and that Likud would come into the premiership with him at its helm.
But, at least at this point (and things change so quickly here who can say if it will be the same in 6 months) if Bibi and Livni were going head-to-head in a general election today, Livni would win it but secure about exactly the same number of seats for Kadima as exists today. The “left” (I don’t think you can really call Labour left any longer –center-left is about right) parties such as Labour and Meretz would lose in a big way in general elections, as would the Pensioners’s Party. Basically, the Likud and Labour would exchange positions almost perfectly, with Labour dropping down to about 12 seats and Likud gaining up to somewhere between 18-24 seats. Putting together a coalition under those conditions would be much more difficult.
Yeah, remember back when I was like Livni, Livni! but thought she wouldn’t have a chance if there were general elections because even the people I knew from Meretz were going pro-Bibi? Well, there has been a shift. Bibi-mania has reduced now that it is clear that Olmert is out. It is not so much that people were pro-Bibi as anti-Olmert and thus willing to vote for ANYONE who had a shot at getting Olmert outta there.
Livni is also gaining a much broader level of support because she knows how to keep her mouth shut. Now a lot of people complain, and it is a valid complaint, that they don’t know where she stands on many issues because she keeps her mouth shut. But the deal is, the other guys (Barak, Bibi, Mofaz and so forth) regularly open their mouths… and insert both feet. Furthermore, just because they open their mouths does not necessarily mean you know where they stand –lots of the feet inserting happens because they spout off one thing and then go and do the opposite.
Livni plays it close to the hip and that is a much smarter strategy.
It is also not a bad strategy for use in dealing with the Palestinians. They have no idea what she would do and being in a position of uncertainty makes them uncertain of how they should react. Several Palestinian friends have said that the Palestinians are much more worried about Livni getting the leadership than Bibi because they were able to successfully counter Bibi when he was in office before and know what to expect from him whereas with Livni you have the hardline approach that Bibi adopts with them but without the ability to rouse the bluster in response to the bluster that you had with Bibi. They consider Livni to be more dangerous to them.
The thing that really sucks is that it looks like Shas, regardless of whether Livni can cobble a coalition now or in six months, or if it is Bibi in six months who is putting together a coalition, will remain a “linchpin” to forming a coalition and thus be able to continue their extortion and negative disproportionate influence on Israeli society.
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(Photo by Dani Machlis)







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